PD122 - SUPPLY CHAIN INSTABILITY IN MEDICAL NUTRITION PRODUCTS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF FULFILLMENT RATES AND PATIENT COMPLAINTS

PD122

SUPPLY CHAIN INSTABILITY IN MEDICAL NUTRITION PRODUCTS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF FULFILLMENT RATES AND PATIENT COMPLAINTS

A. Khayyat¹, A. A. Alfarraj ¹, S. K. Khayyat², T. M. Qumayri^1,*, M. Alnuwaiser¹, N. A. Alajaji¹

¹Clinical Nutrition, King Saud Medical City, Riyadh First Cluster, Riyadh, ²Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Rationale: Medical nutrition products (MNPs) are vital for the 30–50% of patients with malnutrition. Supply is a safety imperative, especially in ICUs. Shortages cause forced substitutions, errors, and patient complaints. At King Saud Medical City, data suggests significant fulfillment gaps. This study formally quantifies these shortages and their impact on service quality indicators like complaints. It also explores the "substitution cascade"—where specific product gaps displace demand—a phenomenon previously unexplored in the Saudi context.

Methods: A 12-month (2025) retrospective study at KSMC analyzed Fulfillment rates, cross-category Spearman correlations, Mann–Whitney U tests, and lag-1 temporal analyses were applied (α=0.05). MNP orders were risk-stratified into Red (critical), Yellow (Moderate), and Green (Low).

Results: The annual supply gap reached 51.8% (n=897,555 units). A significant concurrent substitution cascade was observed: primary category (Red) shortages triggered immediate surges in Yellow (+69%, p=0.045) and Green (+44%) demand, with a strong inverse correlation between Red fulfillment and Yellow ordering (Spearman ρ=−0.781, p=0.003). Total supply shortages significantly correlated with increased monthly complaints (Pearson r=0.587, p=0.045; Spearman ρ=0.695, p=0.012). September marked a systemic failure: while primary fulfillment reached 72%, secondary categories collapsed (Yellow 36.8%, Green 29.6%), exhausting all clinical alternatives and precipitating peak monthly complaints. 

Image:

Conclusion: Providing the first empirical proof of a cross-category substitution cascade, this study demonstrates that critical MNP shortages displace demand and trigger broader supply collapses. With >50% of demand unmet, hospitals must abandon isolated tracking and adopt interdependent forecasting models, dynamic real-time safety thresholds, and ERP-embedded cascade risk surveillance.

Disclosure of Interest: None declared